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KK’s Winning Methods |
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Superseded Page The contents of this page
have now been moved to: April-10th, 2018 Below for ref only – to be
deleted. |
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Introduction I
do not claim that my methods are the very best way to win online; in fact I’m
certain they are not! But
this website is about my experiences, so I’m going to tell you how I like to
play. For my first 5-years online I
used to play mostly card games – this is reflected in my original text below.
By 2006 I had switched to nearly exclusively slots play, but still continued
to make regular profits! I feel the main reason for this is my self-control
in using the Frames & Targets and Money Management as outlined below,
which can be allied to all casino play. First
of all, I am a committed low-roller and normally start playing all games at
the minimum, or the next level up.
The biggest bet I normally play is $15, and that’s only on games where
the minimum is $5. The main reason
for this is I hate losing big bets! Secondly,
in the long run you can not win from casinos. Why? Because of a little thing called 'The
House Edge'. All casino games are
mathematically engineered to ensure that no matter what you do, over an
infinite number of goes they WILL take a precise % (averaged across all
goes) of your money. If
you're still not sure what House Edge is, I'll try to explain; Suppose
you gave me £100 to toss a coin 100 times. Every time it lands on heads
I will give you back £1.10, and every time it lands on tails I will give
you £0.85. If
a miracle happened & I tossed heads 100 times you would win £10 off me
(100 x £1.10 = £110), or if the miracle went the other way and it was 100
tails you would lose £15 (100 x £0.85 = £85). However,
on average I would toss 50 heads & 50 tails and you would end up
getting £97.50 back ((50 x £1.10 = £55) + (50 x £0.85 = £42.50) = £97.50. You
would lose £2.50 which is 2.5% of your original £100, and so the house edge
is 2.5%. Now
2.5% does not sound very much, but in gambling terms it is pretty damn big!
(For example, Blackjack games have a house edge of about 0.5% on average - though
some variations go down as low as 0.015%!). Whatever the house edge, as
long as the casinos have the mathematical advantage there is nothing
you can do to beat them in the long run... Except
of course… you can - if you have a head start!! There
is no possible way to beat the casinos mathematical advantage on any given
game in the long run (if there was any
way, do you think the casinos would still be making the game available to
play?). However there are strategies involving the use of bonuses (for a head
start), and money management (loss control) which can let you win in the long
run. As
I said before, I don't claim to be any kind of expert in this, but I must be
doing something right because I have made reasonable profits from online
casinos year on year since 2001! And
I am not a bonus ‘abuser’ – I NEVER only play the lowest house edge game
possible to WR & withdraw, and I dislike other players who do this as it
only forces the casinos to tighten up on their bonuses & associated
WR’s. I play for fun as well as
profit, and frequently switch between games, even the ‘high risk’ ones, like
slots. Sometimes I forget all my
strategies, go completely bonkers and blow my stack (as you will see if you
read my Personal Results page), but hey – I’m only human! I just give myself a good telling off &
try not to do it too often. J I
never set out with the following particular strategy in mind, and actually
never even thought about analysing my method until I started compiling this
website in Feb-2006! In
a nutshell this is how I do it:- Frames
& Targets Using
the calendar month & Bonus WR gives me a 'Frame' to work within & a 'Target' to aim at. It
gives structure to my gambling. For
example: A 100$ 100% bonus with a WR of Bx20 ($2,000); I
take this bonus at any time during a month, and my first target is to
finish the WR by the end of that month while losing as little of the bonus as
I can (but with out ‘abusing’ it). Only when I have completed the
wagering requirements do I have to start making the
important multi-choice decisions.
These decisions will be based mainly on how my overall month is
looking (including all the casinos I am playing). Firstly, how have I done at the current
casino? If my account balance is less than 50% of my original deposit, I will
normally play on until it is around 50% - or I bust out. Secondly, if I have taken the bonus early
in the month, I wont know how it’s going to turn out, so I will just leave
that account alone until I have a better picture. I am never afraid to leave any casino
account untouched for weeks at a time. If
towards the end of the month it is looking tight (only a small profit) I will
take what I have & wait for the next month. (Remember, my prime target is
just to not lose in any month). If
I am well up I will risk a bit of my profit to see if I can win even more,
but I am careful not to risk too much (say about 20% max). If
I’m down from about $1-$150 I will try to recover by playing on in the
casinos I’ve already started, or I may decide to take up a new decent sign-up
bonus and attempt to recover with that. If
I’m down $200 or more, I will call it a day (or rather, a month!), lick my
wounds & wait for the next month. Money
Management Money
Management gives me further targets and means I can not lose more than a
certain amount in a given month, but there is no limit to how much I can win! Per
Casino Limits:
The first limiter is how much I need to deposit for the bonus I’m
claiming. Say I take a bonus on a $100
deposit, and suffer a complete blow out – I will not deposit more to try to
win my money back, instead I will move on to a different casino, different
bonus. So the most I can lose at that
casino is $100 – but of course, there is no limit to how much I can win if I
get really lucky! If I had total blow
outs at the first 4-5 casinos I played in a month I would probably stop right
there & then, rather than risk having a mega-loss month. However, this
has never happened yet – and I hope it never will! Per
Game Limits:
Before I start playing any game I set myself targets on how much I am
prepared to lose and how much I am prepared to win! The maximum loss is easily understood – if
I’m having a bad run of luck in a game I know from experience it does not
mean it must turn around & get better – there is just as much chance of
it getting even worse. I don’t have
exact set rules for this, and it does vary a bit from game to game, but
typically for card games with starting bets of $2 my max loss would be about
10x this = $20, and for $5 games about $40-50. With slots it is roughly 10-20% of my total
account balance. You
may not understand why I have a maximum win, but remember that the house edge
is always against you, so if I’m ahead it means I have been lucky and am
beating the odds. But runs of good
luck never go on for ever, so I try to get out before the tide turns the
other way. My win limits are roughly
the same as my loss limits, but of course, I am much happier to exceed
these! For example, if I was playing
$2 BlackJack with a win target of $20, but a good run took me to $24 up, I
would play on with the $4 and try to get to $30. If I did that I might (if
I’m feeling lucky) try for $40. But
then I’m very strict with myself – if my profit falls back to my original
target of $20, I WILL stop and move to a different game. Slot play is a bit more tricky, but
basically if I’ve had an unusually good run of decent wins I’ll stop too. Playing
Strategy It
makes me cringe when I hear of players using the ‘martingale’ system – this
is when you increase your bet each time you lose in the hope of winning back
all your losses. In my book this is a
recipe for disaster! This is why; You
lose a $5 hand of BlackJack, so you double your next bet to $10, lose &
bet $20, lose & bet $40, lose & bet $80 – hooray! You win the hand!
You get $80. Total wagered = $155,
total won $160. Well done – you just risked $155 to win $5! Hmmmm, does not sound like good odds to me. I
use the opposite strategy – I increase my bet when I win. So if I was playing $5 BlackJack (not
likely!) and won a hand, I would bet $10 on the next hand. If that won it
would be $15 or $20 on the next one depending on how well the session is
going. Win or lose, I would go back to
$5 on the next hand. I
use this strategy (or something very similar) on most low variance card
games, but not so much on higher variance ones (see Beginners
Guide to Cards). The only card
game where I would increase my bet after losing is Let it Ride, and then
only small increments after at least 5 or 6 losing hands. (The chances of
getting a winning hand are only 1 in 5). Slots
are a different matter altogether, and are much more subject to my perception
of my chances of winning. I will cover
this in more detail on my slots page (when I get around to writing it!). There are loads of different types of
slots, but I mostly play the 5-reel multi-line bonus video slots. On these slots the hope is to get the bonus
round because this is almost the only chance of profiting from them. But you need to know the chances of
this. On MicroGaming's Ladies Nite
& Spring Break, for example, the chances of getting the 3 scatter symbols
to trigger the bonus round is something like one in 130-140 spins, so I start
at very low stakes for about 100 spins, then increase it slightly every 25 or
50 spins. If I get to about 250 spins without it ‘hitting’ and/or I reach my
max loss limit, I will give up & try a different game. Recommended next section: Top Tips to Winning |
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Page created: March-2006. Last full review: 27~03~07. Last update: 10/04/18